Vietnam is poised to see a boost in the value of its rice exports towards the end of 2026, amid recovering global prices and increasing demand from key markets. By mid-August, Vietnam had already exported an estimated 5.7 million tonnes of rice, with total exports for the year projected to hit around 7.7 million tonnes. Although export earnings are anticipated to be about US$3.9 billion—down roughly 4% from last year due to weak prices earlier in the year—an upward trend in prices since July, which saw a 5.8% year-on-year increase, could bolster revenue in the coming months.
The global rice market is showing signs of tightening, as a supply and demand deficit looms for the 2026-27 crop year, potentially driving trade to record levels. The threat of a strong El Niño is prompting countries to bolster their food reserves, further fueling demand. The Philippines, Vietnam’s largest rice customer, plans to import approximately 5.6 million tonnes in the 2026-27 cycle to maintain reserve levels. Meanwhile, China is ramping up imports of broken rice for animal feed, presenting additional export opportunities for Vietnam.
Other international markets are also presenting potential for growth. Nigeria is anticipated to experience a substantial rice supply shortfall, while Kenya has temporarily removed import duties on white rice within a quota system. Vietnamese exporters are finding success in premium markets, with high-quality, low-emission certified rice fetching prices above US$1,000 per tonne in regions such as Japan, the European Union, and Australia.
However, the positive outlook for Vietnam’s rice industry is tempered by several challenges. The Philippines is contemplating the imposition of additional safeguard duties on rice from Vietnam and other major suppliers, which could increase tariffs to over 35%, impacting exports to this crucial market. Indonesia is unlikely to import rice this year due to strong domestic production and robust reserves. Additionally, Vietnamese rice faces stiff price competition from India and Pakistan in African markets, while Thailand is increasing its presence in China and Cambodia is expanding exports of fragrant rice.
Moreover, high costs of fertilizer, transportation, and energy are exerting pressure on farmers and exporters alike. The potential onset of El Niño could bring about drought and saltwater intrusion between late 2026 and early 2027, posing risks to the forthcoming winter-spring rice crop. Nonetheless, the combination of rising prices, stronger demand, and a growing appetite for premium rice varieties could enhance Vietnam’s export earnings by year’s end, despite the ongoing challenges related to tariffs, competition, and possible adverse weather conditions.